Judgements vs Systematic Predictability

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Do you ever wake up and have a feeling about something? It could be anything. Maybe it was that you felt it was going to rain or you were going to win the Lotto! That’s intuition – you have a feeling or judgement about someone or a certain outcome. Psychologist Paul Meehl did a study and published a small volume on this topic. The results of his study showed that we are poor predictors of outcomes based on subjective information or individual judgements versus relying on fewer inputs that are based on statistics and systematic approach. What does this mean for golfers? Well, first it infers we have poor judgement based on subjective information, “my game is improving,” “my swing felt better today,” or “my putting has improved.” In this case golfers have short memories and cannot accurately predict the future outcomes based on their “feelings” of improvement.

I know this may tick a few readers off but the best and truest way to predict your improvement is to base it on real numbers and a systematic plan that creates more predictable results. Problem one for most golfers is, this is hard! Few golfers want to really know how hard it is to improve their scores consistently; evidence is the handicap system. In 25 years of viewing handicaps, it largely stays the same. If you want to improve your game and lower scores predictably, follow a structured plan that gives real feedback based on metrics that are measurable. In the long run, this will lead to less frustration, no need to fill in the “skill challenge ratio” gap with unnecessary mental coaching by Dr. Bob Rotella’s book, Golf is Not a Game of Perfect!!

If you are having a hard time with understanding your game and having too many rounds that are out of left field, I would suggest our 5 Elements of Success Evaluation to measure and baseline your skills in order to build a more predictable action plan for your desired outcomes!

 
Enjoy Your Journey!

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438 thoughts on “Judgements vs Systematic Predictability”

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